in the clouds

At a recent (January 31st) Vancouver City Council meeting, this motion was approved: Increasing the Climate-Smart Supply of Renewable Energy in Vancouver. It allows staff to begin work on an agenda of solar panel proliferation similar to European examples such as … starting in 2023 Berlin is requiring solar panel (PV) installations for all new buildings and major renovations. This would be icing on the current no-natural-gas cake now baking in the municipal oven.
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Despite the city’s existing plan to go all-electric and draw down huge new power loads from the grid, their motion sows fear that the system cannot withstand such demand. Both EVs and building retrofits, including the installation of heat pumps, EV charging and electric hot water heating, are creating increased demand for electricity supply. However, B.C. Hydro's Five-Year Electrification Plan, released by the government in September of 2021, estimates that it has sufficient supply of clean electricity, including from Site C dam, only to 2030. (emphasis added)

​BC Hydro's Electrification Plan is quite a bit rosier than has been presented by the city. Because BC Hydro currently has a surplus of power—and is expected to for many years to come, encouraging customers to make the switch or attracting new business helps to keep rates low. There are currently over 4,800 megawatts of new potential projects and fuel switching opportunities at various stages of development. Hydro is so confident in its capacity that it aspires to attract new energy intensive companies to BC, as opposed to safe-guarding a limited supply into the future.

Intuitively, Vancouver is not well situated for solar energy and this is backed up by Environment Canada’s report Economics of Solar Power in Canada - Results. Canada’s west coast and Newfoundland and Labrador tend to have the less potential to generate solar power in Canada. This is because these areas are cloudy and receive less sunlight.

Solar has low electric supply efficiency in the best of conditions. Environment Canada confirms that, for a northern latitude with a wet climate, this is reduced further. Capacity factors tend to be 18% or below in Canada. Canada’s west coast and Newfoundland and Labrador, which are relatively cloudy, tend to have the lowest capacity factors in Canada.
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That study also includes map illustrations for Solar Breakeven installation costs across the nation. For BC, even in the low-cost future scenario, return doesn’t capture-back initial investment:
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​​Many had hoped that the election of a new Mayor and Councillors would usher in an era of pragmatic Vancouver leadership, as opposed to the green fantasies of past regimes. It appears however, that the inmates are still running the asylum.
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