fatal attribution

A recent article in the Tyee is titled Tragically, BC Ignored Lessons of 2009's Killer Heat Wave. It explains how a 2009 heat event in Vancouver likely caused many unattributed deaths, and that:

Fewer might have died during the heat dome of 2021 if earlier recommendations had been heeded, say experts.

Naturally, BC Health Minister Adrian Dix would rather blame the 2021 deaths entirely on Climate Change. As quoted by the Tyee:

“The heat dome of 2021 was seen then as a one in a thousand event, and it had been,” Dix said in a press conference on June 27. “But now, of course, it occurred two years ago — and we’re seeing, with the impact of climate change, that such events may well happen not one in a thousand, but one in 10, one in five.”.

The Tyee article discusses a particular heat-related death in 2009, but then takes the position that 2021 involved an even hotter stretch:

That was 12 years before a heat dome scorched much of B.C. with even higher temperatures and grabbed the world’s attention in the summer of 2021.

One of the experts quoted in the Tyee story, Dr. Sarah Henderson, also believes that the 2021 Heat Dome surpassed what took place in 2009:

She says the intensity of the 2021 heat dome was far beyond what happened in 2009.
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But looking at temperatures during peak hot weather for Vancouver YVR Airport, 2009 involved a more intense and persistent heat wave:

                 2009      2021     1960     1990
  1 Day      34.4       32.4      33.3
  2 Day      34.2       32.4      32.5
  3 Day      33.1       32.1
  4 Day      32.0       31.9
  5 Day      31.2       30.6
  6 Day      30.4       29.6
  7 Day      29.9       28.7
  8 Day      29.3       27.9
  9 Day      29.0       27.3                   27.7
10 Day      28.7       27.1                   27.3

From this, it is clear that the 2021 Heat Dome was neither a one in a thousand event, nor was its intensity far beyond what happened in 2009. Even 1960 was hotter in the short-term, while the warm spell in 1990 was more persistent.

Another measurement used to promote Climate Change is an alleged increase in days over 25 C each summer. For this category 2021 is runner-up again, tied with 1967, 1998 and 2004 at 25 days over 25 C. The warmest summer by far was in 1958 when there were 41 days above 25 C … imagine the hysteria if that had happened recently (1958 was also Vancouver’s warmest year on record).

If 2021 wasn’t the worst heat event in Vancouver history then why did so many people die? The answer is hidden in the Tyee article:

… the 2009 heat wave “passed almost silently,” Henderson said. “It wasn’t until later that we realized those deaths had occurred.”

Back in 2009 there wasn’t the same clamour to attribute all negative outcomes to Climate Change. Any death involving a significant illness, enhanced by hyperthermia, wasn’t listed as “heat-related” like it is today. By comparison, end of life for cancer patients is often due to an infection that their weakened body cannot fight off … why aren’t such deaths similarly classified as “infection-related”?

There have only been 30 days in the YVR record (since 1937) where the temperature has gone to 30 C or higher. Half of those days occurred before 1980 and half after. Most of the inhabited world experiences 30 + temperatures on a much more frequent basis. Even in Canada, Windsor Ontario recorded 31 such days in 2018 alone.

Killer Heat in Vancouver is almost an oxymoron. Where there is no pre-existing mental or physical disability, death is largely preventable through occasional use of air conditioning and wellness checks on the few days each year where temperatures climb.
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